Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Malkin 49.4% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 69.5%
Defensive zone
Malkin 60.4%
Neutral zone
Malkin 62.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Matthews
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Matthews
Malkin
Last 8: Matthews 3-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
5
Matthews
Malkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Malkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Malkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
49.0% (811)
+3.7%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
55.8% (43)
-21.2%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
50.0% (2)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Malkin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (568).
Home / Away
Matthews
Malkin
Home
54.8% (515)
52.3% (438)
Away
50.2% (534)
46.2% (418)
By Period
Matthews
Malkin
P1
54.4%
51.3%
P2
50.4%
50.8%
P3
51.8%
45.0%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:42 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |