Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Malkin 48.7% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 68.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 65.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 51.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Matthews
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Matthews
Malkin
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
2
Matthews
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Malkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Malkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
47.9% (776)
+5.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
66.7% (24)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
100.0% (1)
-58.1%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +58.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Malkin is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Matthews
Malkin
Home
56.5% (703)
49.6% (405)
Away
50.0% (616)
47.5% (396)
By Period
Matthews
Malkin
P1
52.1%
49.6%
P2
54.0%
47.2%
P3
54.0%
48.5%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 13:38 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:22 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 10:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 09:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |