Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Evans 50.1% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 50.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 56.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Matthews
Evans
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Evans
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
5
Matthews
Evans
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
2
Matthews
Evans
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
52.2% (320)
+0.0%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
100.0% (2)
-47.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
41.0% (83)
+2.8%
On power play, Evans has a +47.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
53.5% (454)
54.3% (223)
Away
50.1% (413)
45.1% (182)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
54.8%
53.9%
P2
52.2%
44.9%
P3
48.1%
52.5%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| May 6, 2021 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 18:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 7, 2021 | 1 | 02:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 10, 2021 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 10, 2021 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 13, 2021 | 2 | 19:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2021 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2021 | 1 | 05:10 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |