Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Evans 52.0% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 86.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 68.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 65.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Matthews
Evans
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Matthews
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Evans
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
54.4% (807)
-1.0%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
55.0% (20)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
46.1% (310)
-4.2%
On power play, Matthews has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
56.5% (703)
53.7% (581)
Away
50.0% (616)
50.5% (556)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
52.1%
54.6%
P2
54.0%
50.0%
P3
54.0%
52.3%
OT
57.7%
46.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 02:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |