Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Evans 55.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 76.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 76.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 55.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Matthews
Evans
Last 7: Matthews 3-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
2
Matthews
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Matthews
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
56.2% (477)
+3.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
70.0% (10)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
55.4% (204)
+0.9%
On power play, Evans has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
60.0% (520)
55.3% (374)
Away
59.3% (452)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
60.2%
58.5%
P2
58.2%
55.7%
P3
60.4%
53.9%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |