Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Evans 49.8% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 90.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 55.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 64.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Matthews
Evans
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
1
Matthews
Evans
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
5
Matthews
Evans
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Matthews
Evans
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.3% (739)
+5.0%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
53.3% (15)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
43.0% (172)
+7.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (667).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
60.7% (572)
52.1% (503)
Away
52.4% (657)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
60.3%
50.5%
P2
55.6%
47.7%
P3
53.3%
51.3%
OT
45.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |