Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 23 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Evans 52.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 36-34 in 70 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 83.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 78.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 53.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Matthews
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
34
(70 meetings)
36
34
Matthews
Evans
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
20
4
Matthews
Evans
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
21
Matthews
Evans
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
14
9
Matthews
Evans
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
53.8% (3,695)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
60.0% (70)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
47.1% (1,222)
+2.7%
On power play, Evans has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Home / Away
Matthews
Evans
Home
56.3% (5,065)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Matthews
Evans
P1
55.5%
54.0%
P2
53.3%
50.9%
P3
52.8%
52.0%
OT
56.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:54 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |