Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Skinner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Skinner 45.5% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 68.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 96.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 87.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Matthews
Skinner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Skinner
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Skinner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
0
1
Matthews
Skinner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Skinner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Skinner
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
41.0% (105)
+12.4%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
50.0% (18)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
0.0% (1)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Skinner shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Skinner is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Matthews
Skinner
Home
56.5% (703)
43.8% (64)
Away
50.0% (616)
40.0% (60)
By Period
Matthews
Skinner
P1
52.1%
38.6%
P2
54.0%
40.5%
P3
54.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
54.6%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
41.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:16 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:01 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |