Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Hayes 47.7% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 31-18 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 97.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
18
(49 meetings)
31
18
Matthews
Hayes
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
6
Matthews
Hayes
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
8
Matthews
Hayes
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
13
4
Matthews
Hayes
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
47.5% (6,708)
+6.5%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
51.7% (702)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
45.3% (697)
+4.5%
On even strength, Matthews has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
56.3% (5,065)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
55.5%
47.5%
P2
53.3%
47.6%
P3
52.8%
47.9%
OT
56.6%
54.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:23 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 15:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |