Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Hayes 56.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 60.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 62.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Matthews
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
56.6% (724)
-3.2%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
57.0% (79)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
65.7% (35)
-23.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
56.5% (703)
58.0% (405)
Away
50.0% (616)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
52.1%
54.7%
P2
54.0%
55.7%
P3
54.0%
60.2%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |