Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Hayes 43.8% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 89.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 89.3%
89.3%
10.7%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Matthews
Hayes
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
Hayes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
42.7% (478)
+13.6%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
42.9% (98)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
45.2% (31)
+4.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
60.7% (572)
43.5% (232)
Away
52.4% (657)
42.4% (375)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
60.3%
40.1%
P2
55.6%
44.8%
P3
53.3%
42.4%
OT
45.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 10:23 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 15:43 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |