Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Hayes 49.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 61.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 62.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 60.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Matthews
Hayes
Last 5: Matthews 3-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Matthews
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
48.5% (557)
+4.2%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
53.3% (107)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
58.3% (12)
+16.7%
On power play, Hayes has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
54.8% (515)
50.8% (313)
Away
50.2% (534)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
54.4%
52.3%
P2
50.4%
47.7%
P3
51.8%
48.4%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |