Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Hayes 51.7% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 61.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 54.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Matthews
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Matthews
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
51.6% (386)
+6.7%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
53.2% (47)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
60.0% (20)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
59.1% (528)
50.5% (200)
Away
55.1% (695)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
56.2%
58.8%
P2
58.1%
49.3%
P3
56.4%
48.0%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |