Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Duchene 51.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 56.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 80.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 77.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Matthews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Matthews
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
51.2% (324)
+8.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
60.4% (53)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
16.7% (6)
+39.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Matthews
Duchene
Home
60.0% (520)
51.6% (182)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Matthews
Duchene
P1
60.2%
49.6%
P2
58.2%
56.2%
P3
60.4%
48.6%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |