Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Duchene 52.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 60.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 75.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Matthews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Matthews
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
53.0% (723)
+5.3%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
49.5% (101)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
43.8% (16)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Matthews
Duchene
Home
59.1% (528)
54.9% (408)
Away
55.1% (695)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Matthews
Duchene
P1
56.2%
52.5%
P2
58.1%
51.7%
P3
56.4%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |