Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Duchene 55.6% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 51.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 55.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Matthews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Matthews
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
56.5% (566)
-3.1%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
61.3% (62)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
22.2% (9)
+19.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Matthews
Duchene
Home
56.5% (703)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.0% (616)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Matthews
Duchene
P1
52.1%
57.2%
P2
54.0%
55.1%
P3
54.0%
55.6%
OT
57.7%
81.3%
Final 5 min
54.6%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 18:07 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |