Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Kadri 47.6% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 78.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 97.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 89.3%
89.3%
10.7%
Matthews
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Matthews
Kadri
Last 8: Matthews 7-1 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Kadri
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.4% (821)
+12.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
48.8% (86)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
38.5% (13)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Kadri is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (595).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kadri
Home
60.0% (520)
46.6% (487)
Away
59.3% (452)
48.3% (433)
By Period
Matthews
Kadri
P1
60.2%
52.7%
P2
58.2%
50.2%
P3
60.4%
40.2%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:00 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |