Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Kadri 48.7% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 32-11 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 94.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 91.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Matthews
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
11
(43 meetings)
32
11
Matthews
Kadri
Last 10: Matthews 9-1 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
4
Matthews
Kadri
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
3
Matthews
Kadri
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
12
4
Matthews
Kadri
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
48.2% (12,510)
+5.8%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
53.0% (1,892)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
41.0% (293)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Kadri is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,379).
Home / Away
Matthews
Kadri
Home
56.3% (5,065)
49.1% (7,467)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.1% (7,231)
By Period
Matthews
Kadri
P1
55.5%
49.2%
P2
53.3%
48.8%
P3
52.8%
48.0%
OT
56.6%
49.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:17 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:00 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 02:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |