Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Dowd 49.1% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 94.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 51.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 84.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 94.4%
94.4%
5.6%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Matthews
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
51.7% (644)
+8.1%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
0.0% (2)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
41.6% (221)
+14.7%
On power play, Matthews has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
60.0% (520)
48.6% (451)
Away
59.3% (452)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
60.2%
49.1%
P2
58.2%
47.3%
P3
60.4%
51.4%
OT
70.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |