Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 86.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 61.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Matthews
Dowd
Last 7: Matthews 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Matthews
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Matthews
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
55.2% (625)
-2.5%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
57.1% (7)
-22.5%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
38.2% (220)
+36.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
54.8% (515)
53.7% (445)
Away
50.2% (534)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
54.4%
48.8%
P2
50.4%
49.3%
P3
51.8%
54.0%
OT
75.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |