Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Dowd 48.3% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 78.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Matthews
Dowd
Last 10: Matthews 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
0
Matthews
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Matthews
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
49.2% (778)
+4.2%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
58.3% (12)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
44.0% (234)
-2.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
56.5% (703)
46.3% (492)
Away
50.0% (616)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
52.1%
49.1%
P2
54.0%
48.2%
P3
54.0%
46.9%
OT
57.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.6%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |