Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 23 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 33-27 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 65.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 63.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
27
(60 meetings)
33
27
Matthews
Dowd
Last 10: Matthews 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
20
3
Matthews
Dowd
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
13
Matthews
Dowd
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
11
11
Matthews
Dowd
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
52.4% (6,009)
+1.6%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
56.1% (164)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
44.1% (1,635)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,705).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
56.3% (5,065)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
55.5%
51.7%
P2
53.3%
50.4%
P3
52.8%
50.3%
OT
56.6%
45.9%
Final 5 min
54.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 11:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |