Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (+6.9%)
Offensive zone
Matthews 83.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 87.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Matthews
Dowd
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.2% (835)
+6.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
60.0% (10)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
44.0% (350)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
59.1% (528)
51.5% (619)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
56.2%
51.7%
P2
58.1%
51.6%
P3
56.4%
47.0%
OT
50.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%