Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Dowd 53.3% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 85.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Matthews
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
12
(26 meetings)
14
12
Matthews
Dowd
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
2
Matthews
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Matthews
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
8
5
Matthews
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
55.4% (771)
+0.9%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
57.1% (7)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
45.5% (165)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Matthews
Dowd
Home
60.7% (572)
58.2% (462)
Away
52.4% (657)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Matthews
Dowd
P1
60.3%
55.6%
P2
55.6%
50.5%
P3
53.3%
53.9%
OT
45.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 09:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 04:14 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 05:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |