Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Zacha 51.7% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 91.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 78.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 88.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Zacha
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.3% (646)
+6.5%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
53.0% (100)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
38.9% (72)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
60.0% (520)
51.7% (410)
Away
59.3% (452)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
60.2%
57.7%
P2
58.2%
48.9%
P3
60.4%
50.2%
OT
70.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |