Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 57.9% vs Zacha 51.9% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 82.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Zacha
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (715)
53.7% (497)
+4.9%
Power Play
65.7% (35)
54.8% (84)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (71)
37.5% (64)
+20.2%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
60.0% (475)
51.0% (335)
Away
57.2% (346)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
58.3%
60.0%
P2
58.4%
48.1%
P3
59.4%
48.8%
OT
70.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
64.0%▲
60.5%
58.8%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |