Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Zacha 52.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 69.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 66.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 57.8%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Matthews
Zacha
Last 8: Matthews 4-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Matthews
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Matthews
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
54.1% (534)
+4.2%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
56.0% (109)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
44.8% (96)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
59.1% (528)
53.4% (406)
Away
55.1% (695)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
56.2%
56.8%
P2
58.1%
53.6%
P3
56.4%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | OT | 03:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |