Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Zacha 49.1% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 23-18 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 82.6%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 80.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
18
(41 meetings)
23
18
Matthews
Zacha
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
9
5
Matthews
Zacha
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
11
6
Matthews
Zacha
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
3
7
Matthews
Zacha
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
48.9% (5,102)
+5.1%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
55.6% (804)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
42.2% (555)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
56.3% (5,065)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
55.5%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
49.2%
P3
52.8%
48.1%
OT
56.6%
53.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:58 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2025 | OT | 03:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 09:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |