Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Zacha 54.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 50.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 60.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 55.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Matthews
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Matthews
Zacha
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Matthews
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
53.9% (787)
-0.5%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
63.2% (193)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
44.3% (88)
-2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Matthews
Zacha
Home
56.5% (703)
56.7% (538)
Away
50.0% (616)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Matthews
Zacha
P1
52.1%
52.6%
P2
54.0%
54.8%
P3
54.0%
56.8%
OT
57.7%
59.1%
Final 5 min
54.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 09:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |