Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Faksa 53.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 66.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 83.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 95.5%
95.5%
4.5%
Matthews
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Matthews
Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Faksa
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
56.4% (289)
+3.4%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
0.0% (2)
+64.9%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
49.2% (126)
+7.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +64.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Faksa is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Matthews
Faksa
Home
60.0% (520)
54.9% (182)
Away
59.3% (452)
53.2% (235)
By Period
Matthews
Faksa
P1
60.2%
61.1%
P2
58.2%
51.3%
P3
60.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |