Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Thomas 49.9% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 85.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 84.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
Matthews
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Thomas
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Thomas
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
49.0% (910)
+7.3%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
53.5% (142)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
53.3% (75)
-3.3%
On even strength, Matthews has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
60.7% (572)
47.3% (514)
Away
52.4% (657)
52.0% (613)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
60.3%
50.4%
P2
55.6%
47.5%
P3
53.3%
51.4%
OT
45.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:40 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |