Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.1%). Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Thomas 52.9% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 52.2%
Defensive zone
Thomas 52.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 52.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Matthews
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
12
(23 meetings)
11
12
Matthews
Thomas
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
4
5
Matthews
Thomas
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
4
Matthews
Thomas
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
3
Matthews
Thomas
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
53.2% (1,166)
+0.2%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
56.9% (262)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
48.4% (221)
-6.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
56.5% (703)
51.6% (830)
Away
50.0% (616)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
52.1%
52.7%
P2
54.0%
55.6%
P3
54.0%
50.6%
OT
57.7%
61.5%
Final 5 min
54.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 18:52 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:04 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:20 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:50 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:04 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |