Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Thomas 51.7% (+7.8%)
Offensive zone
Thomas 56.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 57.5%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Matthews
Thomas
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
50.1% (615)
+9.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
62.2% (98)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
52.6% (114)
+3.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
60.0% (520)
51.9% (374)
Away
59.3% (452)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
60.2%
49.2%
P2
58.2%
55.3%
P3
60.4%
50.6%
OT
70.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%