Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Thomas 54.5% (+2.0%)
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.2%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Matthews
Thomas
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
55.3% (990)
+3.0%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
54.2% (190)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
52.5% (158)
-1.8%
On even strength, Matthews has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
59.1% (528)
55.1% (690)
Away
55.1% (695)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
56.2%
55.5%
P2
58.1%
56.4%
P3
56.4%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
69.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%