Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.9%). Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Thomas 52.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.4%
Defensive zone
Thomas 56.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 50.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Matthews
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Matthews
Thomas
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Matthews
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Thomas
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
53.6% (924)
-0.9%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
55.2% (181)
-20.6%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
44.0% (116)
+31.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Matthews is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Matthews shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thomas
Home
54.8% (515)
53.6% (606)
Away
50.2% (534)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Matthews
Thomas
P1
54.4%
48.2%
P2
50.4%
55.3%
P3
51.8%
55.2%
OT
75.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 12:02 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | OT | 01:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 15:59 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |