Auston Matthews vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.6%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.0% (408)
+2.4%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
0.0% (6)
+65.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
35.9% (78)
+6.0%
On power play, Matthews has a +65.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.5% (703)
50.8% (258)
Away
50.0% (616)
44.9% (234)
By Period
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
52.1%
51.6%
P2
54.0%
45.2%
P3
54.0%
47.6%
OT
57.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:06 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 19:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |