Auston Matthews vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+11.6%)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 55.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 54.9%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
47.6% (231)
+12.2%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
83.3% (12)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (21)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
60.0% (520)
51.2% (164)
Away
59.3% (452)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
60.2%
50.0%
P2
58.2%
46.2%
P3
60.4%
49.5%
OT
70.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%