Auston Matthews vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 81.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 83.9%
Neutral zone
Matthews 68.2%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 8: Matthews 5-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
50.3% (479)
+8.0%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
50.0% (28)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
30.0% (50)
+20.7%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
59.1% (528)
48.9% (270)
Away
55.1% (695)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Matthews
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
56.2%
48.7%
P2
58.1%
50.0%
P3
56.4%
47.3%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
55.5%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:56 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |