Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Strome 42.3% (+15.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 90.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 97.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 94.7%
94.7%
5.3%
Matthews
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Matthews
Strome
Last 10: Matthews 8-2 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
1
Matthews
Strome
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Strome
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
41.2% (1,040)
+17.1%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
43.0% (151)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
51.4% (35)
-0.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Matthews is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Matthews shoots left. Strome is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Home / Away
Matthews
Strome
Home
59.1% (528)
40.1% (581)
Away
55.1% (695)
43.1% (645)
By Period
Matthews
Strome
P1
56.2%
41.4%
P2
58.1%
42.9%
P3
56.4%
40.5%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.5%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |