Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Monahan 52.4% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 69.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 64.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Matthews
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
15
(25 meetings)
10
15
Matthews
Monahan
Last 10: Matthews 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Monahan
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
2
Matthews
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
9
Matthews
Monahan
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
52.4% (853)
+5.9%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
58.6% (174)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
46.5% (144)
+4.2%
On even strength, Matthews has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Matthews
Monahan
Home
59.1% (528)
53.4% (624)
Away
55.1% (695)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Matthews
Monahan
P1
56.2%
53.7%
P2
58.1%
52.4%
P3
56.4%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 11:21 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 09:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 10:53 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |