Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 56.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 54.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 57.4%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Matthews
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Matthews
Monahan
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
Monahan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Matthews
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
53.2% (823)
+6.6%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
55.3% (159)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
48.4% (95)
+7.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Matthews
Monahan
Home
60.0% (520)
54.6% (529)
Away
59.3% (452)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Matthews
Monahan
P1
60.2%
49.0%
P2
58.2%
55.4%
P3
60.4%
53.6%
OT
70.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:03 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |