Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Aho 52.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 66.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 58.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 63.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Matthews
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Matthews
Aho
Last 10: Matthews 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
4
Matthews
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.6% (819)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
58.4% (173)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
46.3% (67)
+3.7%
On even strength, Matthews has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Matthews
Aho
Home
60.7% (572)
53.9% (568)
Away
52.4% (657)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Matthews
Aho
P1
60.3%
55.4%
P2
55.6%
51.2%
P3
53.3%
50.9%
OT
45.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 19:44 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 13:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 06:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |