Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 56.3% vs Aho 54.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 55.3%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 66.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Matthews
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Matthews
Aho
Last 9: Matthews 6-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Matthews
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
5
0
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (943)
54.5% (870)
+3.8%
Power Play
55.7% (61)
62.4% (266)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (219)
37.1% (62)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Matthews is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Matthews shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Matthews
Aho
Home
59.1% (528)
53.9% (603)
Away
55.1% (695)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Matthews
Aho
P1
56.2%
54.1%
P2
58.1%
55.0%
P3
56.4%
57.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:31 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:31 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:29 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |