Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Aho 51.2% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 60.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 59.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Matthews
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Matthews
Aho
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Matthews
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Matthews
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
48.5% (778)
+4.2%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
63.4% (191)
-28.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
50.8% (65)
+24.2%
On power play, Aho has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Matthews
Aho
Home
54.8% (515)
51.3% (530)
Away
50.2% (534)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Matthews
Aho
P1
54.4%
50.0%
P2
50.4%
51.3%
P3
51.8%
52.1%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 3 | 04:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 12:30 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |