Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 54.1%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Aho 53.8% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 62.7%
Defensive zone
Matthews 63.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Matthews
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Matthews
Aho
Last 9: Matthews 4-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Matthews
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
51.2% (785)
+2.2%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
63.8% (213)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
57.9% (57)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Matthews
Aho
Home
56.5% (703)
54.9% (548)
Away
50.0% (616)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Matthews
Aho
P1
52.1%
52.8%
P2
54.0%
58.9%
P3
54.0%
50.6%
OT
57.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |