Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Thompson 41.2% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 60.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 59.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Matthews
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
12
(23 meetings)
11
12
Matthews
Thompson
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
5
Matthews
Thompson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
5
Matthews
Thompson
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
40.6% (801)
+15.7%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
44.7% (103)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
31.0% (71)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Thompson is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (724).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thompson
Home
60.7% (572)
43.2% (507)
Away
52.4% (657)
37.2% (468)
By Period
Matthews
Thompson
P1
60.3%
37.7%
P2
55.6%
43.4%
P3
53.3%
39.5%
OT
45.0%
27.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:13 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 02:57 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 03:08 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 18:00 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 11:48 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 11:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |