Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 65.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Thompson 45.3% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 62.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 75.0%
Neutral zone
Matthews 65.7%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Matthews
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Matthews
Thompson
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
2
Matthews
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Matthews
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
44.9% (642)
+14.9%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
47.9% (94)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
33.3% (33)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Matthews is 65.5% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Matthews shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thompson
Home
60.0% (520)
46.0% (391)
Away
59.3% (452)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Matthews
Thompson
P1
60.2%
48.1%
P2
58.2%
44.9%
P3
60.4%
41.2%
OT
70.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 06:53 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |