Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Thompson 44.0% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Matthews leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 95.9%
Defensive zone
Matthews 87.5%
Neutral zone
Matthews 94.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 93.3%
93.3%
6.7%
Matthews
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Matthews
Thompson
Last 10: Matthews 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
6
4
Matthews
Thompson
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
44.6% (709)
+8.8%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
41.5% (53)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
35.1% (97)
+6.8%
On power play, Matthews has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thompson
Home
56.5% (703)
45.5% (426)
Away
50.0% (616)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Matthews
Thompson
P1
52.1%
48.5%
P2
54.0%
43.8%
P3
54.0%
38.1%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |