Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 81.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 60.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Hertl
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Matthews
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
58.1% (823)
+1.7%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
56.2% (265)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
62.9% (35)
-6.6%
On power play, Matthews has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
60.0% (520)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.3% (452)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
60.2%
51.6%
P2
58.2%
63.8%
P3
60.4%
58.6%
OT
70.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |