Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 79.2%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 58.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Matthews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Hertl
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
51.6% (1,084)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
61.0% (246)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
44.1% (136)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Matthews is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (755).
Matthews shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hertl
Home
60.7% (572)
55.2% (696)
Away
52.4% (657)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Matthews
Hertl
P1
60.3%
55.4%
P2
55.6%
54.8%
P3
53.3%
48.9%
OT
45.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 2 | 19:20 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |