Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Nosek 58.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 93.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 68.4%
Neutral zone
Matthews 62.4%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Matthews
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Matthews
Nosek
Last 8: Matthews 2-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Matthews
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
2
Matthews
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
59.7% (469)
-7.0%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
100.0% (4)
-65.4%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
56.5% (124)
+18.5%
On power play, Nosek has a +65.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Nosek is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nosek
Home
54.8% (515)
59.0% (295)
Away
50.2% (534)
59.6% (302)
By Period
Matthews
Nosek
P1
54.4%
56.3%
P2
50.4%
61.9%
P3
51.8%
59.2%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |